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most UOA's show most dino breaking down and having a TBN of 1.1-1.2 around 4,500-5,000 miles
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TBN is only one factor used to determine oil life. FTIR testing which shows oxidation/nitration levels is also important; or Insolubles/Flashpoint if the lab that you're using does not offering FTIR testing.
Its best to only use reports generated from an engine similar to one in your vehicle. I've seen Toyota 3.0L V6 engines deplete oil down to a TBN level of 1-1.5 within 5K, but 3.0L V6 Toyota engines are extremely hard on oil, not a fair comparison.
Lastly, TBN is just a value. Repeatability for this value isn't excellent, it will vary even in a blind test. Different labs use different testing protocols to obtain this value. Blackstone's value is obtained using a "non-standard" method and is consistently 1.5-2 pts lower than comparable labs.
Nevertheless, to answer the original questions: follow the maintenance minder system. It has been tested extensively for accuracy and to provide the longest possible oil change interval in your vehicle without compromising engine protection nor fuel efficiency. As with all oil life monitor systems, it will have a generous margin of error. More importantly, you must check your oil level regularly for the system to work correctly!
The "special oil" concept is very simple. All engines are treated with some assembly lube during the assembly. This assembly lube has a very concentrated dose of additives. When fresh oil is installed, this assembly lube is washed into the engine oil to provide additional anti-wear protection up until the first oil change interval.
The process is identical for nearly all engines on the market. Everyone uses assembly lube during engine assembly. However, Honda seems to be the only OEM who is adamant about leaving this oil fill in place. Evidently, the engineers strongly believe that the original oil fill containing assembly lube will provide additional anti-wear protection.
If one runs an UOA on the original oil fill, a high MoDTC content will be revealed. About 400ppm. While Havoline 5w-20 has a similar MoDTC content, there are many additives that do not show up on a $30 UOA so one should just play it safe and leave the original oil fill in for the recommended period of time.
But what about those who do not travel many miles during the course of a year? When should they change their oil? Try looking at it this way: with the maintenance minder system, oil changes can be required in as little as 3,000 miles to as high as 10,000 miles. So, at least from how I view it, the original oil fill should be left in for at least 3,000 miles. Evidently, Honda engineers are attempting to discourage some from changing the factory fill at 500 or 1000 miles.
In my personal opinion, leave the factory fill in until a change is called for. Otherwise, resist the temptation to change the oil until at least 3000 miles. Thereafter, follow your own maintenance schedule, whatever it may be. Personally, I've seen vehicles serviced per OLMs stay sludge free, but depending on the driving conditions, especially if the oil drains were > 5000 miles, I've seen some varnish buildup. The engines that were serviced at least every 5000 miles have stayed a bit cleaner. Those used for short trips stayed very clean if they were serviced every 3000 miles. Thus, one may consider using a synthetic oil if they intend to follow the maintenance minder system to maximize engine cleanliness. However, none of the engines I just described have been run on a SM/GF-4 oil from day one. The newest mineral oils are designed to go 5K and still have minimal buildup, so one who services their vehicle per the maintenance minder system with drains exceeding 5K may not experience the same varnish buildup I've seen after all.
